Ms Yingluck Shinawatra is showing the world that women in Thailand may no longer need to be the hind legs of the elephant, but some critics may argue that she’s just a puppet of her brother. So what’s new? The Reds are leading in opinion polls and I predict a decisive if not landslide victory. Ms Yingluck is poised to become Thailand’s first woman PM. Meanwhile, the folks over at the Yellow camp must be wondering why the Red supporters are so stupid and the Red supporters wonder why the Yellow folks are so dumb.
But it’s not stupidity that such rivalry demonstrates. It’s more a matter of anarchy. It’s about having it your way regardless of what the majority of the people want. Both camps have been guilty of such behaviour, but backed by the powers that be, the Yellow folks seem far more capable of it. I remember that way back in 2006 when Thaksin was first ousted, most of the people around me predicted that Thailand would be peaceful once again – after all the anti-Thaksin demonstrations that brought the country to its knees. Many predicted that he would soon be forgotten. I was the only one who thought otherwise. Whether in Thailand or Dubai, the common people, who have once been empowered by him, will always miss him.
An ang moh “expert” once said that holding a rally at Ratchaprasong would give the Democrats an edge over the Reds. I would beg to differ. Earlier this month, the army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha urged voters to back “good people” who “know what is right and wrong”, warning: “If you allow the election [outcome] to be the same as before, you will not get anything new.”
Another expert remarked that it’s amazing that a man in uniform can get away with saying something like that in the 21st century, but she must realise that apart from their pride, Thai people also have their submissions. And the military, through propaganda and threats, have been managing this submission very well.
Except that a growing number of thinking Thais and once-empowered peasants have started to question the kind of system of government that really exists in their country. Many villages in the North and Northeast have officially declared themselves as Red villages. Almost 1000 of them and still more joining the league. Houses and shops put out billboards with Thaksin’s portrait in total defiance to the military’s admonition. If Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun were right, the undecided voters would be so put off by the general’s remarks that they would vote for the Reds even if they were not fans of Thaksin.
Meanwhile, back in Singapore, a witnessed a heated discussion between a very intelligent and reasoning Singaporean woman with a Thai monk. What strikes me is the way the monk tries to sidestep the pointed questions and insist on why we should not like Thaksin. There is a certain “I know, so it must be” or “I just don’t like him” and “All the problems caused by him” and “Like that for 700 years already” that afflicts people of a supposedly higher level of wisdom.
But as Chairman Mao once said, “All political power comes from the barrel of a gun”. “枪杆子里面出政权”. Sources at the Cambodian border are reporting increased military activity. Why? Would the Cambodians attack them during election time, or would a major battle at the border give an excuse to impose martial law or even stage a military coup if the elected government refuses to act against Cambodia? We know the Reds are always in the military’s sights. It’s a dangerous game. Our panel of experts on 360 (CNA) were rather cautious in not going into too much detail when talking about the forces behind the Democrats and the Yellow Shirts opposing Thaksin. And they have reason to be.
But the sad thing, like Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak once said, is that the unelected people want to rule, the elected people are not allowed to rule. All ways and means are tried to bring them down. After their victory, the Reds are going to face another round of attacks from the Yellow folks. How long can they last? Ms Yingluck seems to have more guts than a lot of Thai men out there.
Can there ever be reconciliation? Sadly, I must confess that I’m very cynical about all this. Ms Yingluck is going to win, probably by a wide margin if not a landslide. He foes are going to try their utmost to bring her down. Full circle? Hopefully not and that’s my only hope.
This picture was digitally created. It is not real
