Abhisit on Thai Economy
05:57 AM Jun 23, 2009
by CHANNEL NEWSASIA
Thailand’s recession-hit economy should move back into positive territory by year-end and, depending on the global economy, hit 2-per-cent growth by next year, said Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at a Thomson Reuters dialogue session with business leaders and media during his one-day visit to Singapore.
Protests in recent months have taken its toll on the country’s key tourism sector and have kept foreign investors away, but Mr Abhisit was positive about Thailand’s core economic strengths.
“We’re determined to keep our base production hub for auto industries, part of the electronics industries and hope to increase the services portion in the economy, as a whole. Potential and strengths are there. The politics has to be reformed to support that,” he said. A second major stimulus package, now before the Senate for approval, would allow the government to borrow almost US$12 billion ($17.5 billion) and create up to 2 million jobs.
The funds will be used for irrigation and infrastructure projects, but should not put a strain on domestic liquidity, Mr Abhisit assured. “We won’t draw liquidity away from the private sector … We’re determined to crowd in investments, not crowd out.”
He added that the Thai government will not restrict foreign businesses and was working to liberalise the financial sector as well as stimulate the development of capital markets.
For people in Bangkok and Pattaya, the Easter weekend was anything but uneventful. Red shirt protesters stormed into the Royal Cliff Beach Resort and forced the cancellation of the ASEAN Summit. They later moved to Bangkok. Thai PM Abhisit Vejajiva then declared a state of emergency. Arrest warrants were issued for protest leaders, Thaksin called back to fuel the flames and a violent crackdown by the military followed.
Today, the red shirts pulled out of their final stronghold at the government house, protest leaders surrendered themselves and everything seemed to have died down as suddenly as it had started. Of course nobody is complaining. Everybody is relieved, but we all know that this won’t be the end. There is still no resolution in sight. As long as there are no elections, the red shirts will not be happy. As long as anyone even remotely related to the former TRT party gets elected (and chances of that happening are extremely high), the yellow shirts won’t be happy. Election or no election?
Meanwhile, arrest warrants are going out for Thaksin for inciting violence. Some people must hate him for that and I personally hate to see people being sacrificed for some other people’s political agenda. But looking a bit deeper at the red shirts movement, a keen observer will notice that it has gone beyond Thaksin. A number of red shirts have declared that they are not even fighting for Thaksin but a new system. If death and injury occurred simply because people want Abhisit to resign, then I think it’s rather foolish. But if this is a peasant’s revolt to demolish Thailand’s brand of contemporary feudalism, then those who believe in the new system should be prepared to sacrifice a little more.
Elected politicians are always in the limelight. How much can they steal from the country? But what about the “lords” and “knights” influencing the country from behind an opaque curtain? Their names are seldom mentioned. Some names are not even mentionable. It’s this bunch of elite that many generations of short-lived politicians must answer to before they even think about serving the people. For many generations of peasants, getting gifts from the “lords” and “knights” was something to celebrate. To attract more gifts and charitable acts, the peasants must act subservient, always lowering their heads, walking in small steps and speaking softly. Borrowing becomes the first solution to their money problems. Marrying a daughter as mia noi in exchange for money is another alternative.
But times have changed and under Thaksin, radical changes in the mindset of the peasants have occurred. These folks suddenly realised that with the appropriate programmes and funding, they can well be masters of their own fate. They no longer need to rely on the charitable acts of the lords and knights. As long as the state could focus some of its attention to the hinterlands and make them more happening, even poor peasants can become proud owners of profitable farms or factories.
Thaksin is not so much an idol worshipped by the peasants. The red shirts are gathering momentum because of an awakening from centuries of indoctrination. Something is wrong with this rich country and its very humble majority. While it is my wish that the peasants’ dreams will come true one day, the “knights” and “lords” are still too powerful to be toppled with peaceful or even small scale violent demonstrations. Not forgetting the millions of class conscious urban, middle class Thais who despise the peasants and happily embrace traditional beliefs which allow them to share some of the wealth that the elite milked out of the peasants. There is no reason for this group of people to stand with the peasants. In fact, they may even put on yellow shirts and stand against the peasants. Afterall, the tumour is not causing them any pain yet. Why bother to shed blood and excise it?
Having said that, the day may come when even the yellow shirts will see the big picture and turn against the “lords” and “knights”. Why am I ambivalent about it? I hate to think about the casualty numbers and the price that the Thai people have to pay. On the other hand, it’s only with a radical change in this current feudal system that Thai peasants will be able to live as dignified individuals and earn a respectable living without making collect calls to Farang boyfriends to send money.
